05.09.2024
Tacirler Investment Macroeconomic Forecasts
Revisiting macro forecasts
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New house forecasts following our April report
- While maintaining our growth forecast for the end of 2024 at 3%, we have revised our 2025 year-end (YE) growth projection down to 3.2% from 3.8%. Our 2026 YE growth forecast is at 3.8%.
- We have retained our inflation forecast for the end of 2024 at 43%. Yet, we have lowered our 2025 YE inflation estimate to 23% from 25% and 2026 YE projection to 18% from 20%.
- We have also adjusted our FX forecasts downward as we revised our year-end USD/TRY forecast downward to 37 from 40. For the end of 2025 and 2026, we now anticipate USD/TRY to be 43 and 50, respectively. Additionally, our EUR/TRY forecast for the end of this year has been updated to 40.80 from 44.
- In our Macro Outlook Report published in April, we initially projected a year-end policy rate of 40%. However, we have since revised this forecast upward to 45%. We now anticipate that the CBT will begin reducing interest rates in November, commencing with a 250bps cut, followed by an additional reduction across two consecutive adjustments in November and December, ultimately bringing the policy rate to 45% by year-end.
- Furthermore, we have adjusted our budget deficit forecast downward, revising this year’s projection from TL2tn to TL1.86tn. For 2025, we now anticipate a budget deficit of TL1.6tn. We expect the implementation of a relatively tighter fiscal policy in 2025, designed to strengthen fiscal discipline and ensure greater alignment with the objectives of monetary policy.
- Lastly, we have lowered our current account deficit forecast for the 2024 to USD25bn from USD33bn. We project a current account deficit of USD27bn in 2025 and USD30bn in 2026.