Macro and Politics
Tacirler Investment
* The Treasury will hold a 5-year CPI-indexed bond auction today. According to the three-month (October–December 2025) domestic borrowing strategy, the Treasury plans to borrow a total of TL290.1bn through five auctions and one direct sale, against redemptions of TL263.6bn in October. After today’s single auction, the Treasury will hold 2-year & 10-year fixed-coupon bond auctions tomorrow and finalize its domestic borrowing program for October. Having already raised a total of TL123bn through domestic borrowing since the beginning of the month, the Treasury is expected to borrow around TL167bn via this week’s triple auctions.
*The CBT will release August Balance of Payment figures today @10:00 local time, and we expect the current account balance to register a surplus of USD5.7bn. We expect the balance-of-payments-defined foreign trade deficit to have narrowed sharply from USD4.6bn to USD2.2bn, while the services surplus likely expanded to around USD9.5bn, driven primarily by stronger net travel revenues. We anticipate that the current account will continue to record surpluses through October, before reverting to deficit territory in November and December. Our 2025 year-end current account deficit forecast stands at USD22bn (1.5% of GDP), with downside risks attached.