Macro and Politics

*TURKSTAT will release July Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The consumer confidence index rose a tad by %0.4 to 85.1 level in June. It is important to underscore that the consumer confidence index — which ranges from 0 to 200 — signals pessimism when it falls below 100, and optimism when it exceeds that threshold. This brought the index average up from 83 in 1Q25 to 84.6 in 2Q25, indicating a modest improvement in sentiment. A breakdown of the June consumer confidence index reveals the following: The sub-index reflecting the financial situation of household at present recorded a modest increase, rising from 69.1 in May to 69.3 in June — though this was notably weaker than the gain observed in the previous month. Meanwhile, the sub-index measuring financial situation expectation of household over the next 12 months rose by 0.6% to 85.8. Following a 0.7% month-on-month decline in May, general economic situation expectation over the next 12 months rebounded slightly in June, increasing by 0.3% to 82.4. Lastly, the sub-index tracking assessment on spending money on durable goods over the next 12 months — a key indicator of domestic demand — edged up by just 0.1% to 102.6 in June, following a strong 3.3% increase in May.

*The Treasury conducted a total TL235bn in domestic borrowing yesterday through the direct sale of 1y USD-denominated bonds and 1y USD-denominated ease certificate to institutional investors. A total of USD5.35bn in bids were submitted for the government bond maturing on July 22, 2026, with settlement on July 23, 2025, while the lease certificate issuance attracted USD463.6mn in demand. All submitted bids were accepted. With yesterday’s direct sales, the Treasury has finalized its domestic borrowing program for July. Accordingly, the total domestic borrowing for the month reached TL512.4bn, significantly exceeding the initial projection of TL376.4bn.