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Macro and politics

Tacirler Investment

*TURKSTAT will release November foreign trade figures 10:00 local time. According to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Trade, import and export figures for November materialized at USD29.6bn and USD22.3bn, respectively, resulting in a trade deficit of USD7.4bn, indicating an increase compared to the previous month’s level of USD5.9bn. We expect the current balance to revert to a deficit in the last two months of the year, with the annual deficit increasing slightly. Along with the rise in the trade deficit and the expected slowdown in tourism revenues, we expect the current account balance to post a deficit around USD3.1bn in November, while we project the current account deficit to end the year around USD9bn (0.7% of GDP), excluding imminent revisions on the past data.

* The Economic Confidence Index increased by 1.8% m/m in December, rising from 97.1 to 98.8. Analyzing the three-month averages, the index level rose from 96.7 to 98 as of December. However, it is noteworthy that the index has remained below the critical threshold value of 100 since March. The Economic Confidence Index, which ranges between 0 and 200, reflects a pessimist outlook regarding the general economic outlook when it falls below the 100 threshold. Examining the monthly changes in the subcomponents of the December data: The consumer confidence index increased by 1.9% to 81.3, the real sector confidence index decreased by 0.7% to 102.7, the services sector confidence index rose by 2.4% to 113.6, the retail trade sector confidence index increased by 1.2% to 113.0 and the construction sector confidence index rose by 1.9% to 89.4. The evident rise in consumption in recent months raises the likelihood of positive quarterly growth in 4Q24. Nonetheless, we anticipate that stringent financial conditions will place additional strain on the industrial sector, with annual GDP growth expected to decelerate further over the next two quarters.

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