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Macro and Politics

Tacirler Investment

* The CBRT announced October balance of payments statistics, revealing a USD1.9bn current account surplus, higher than our house estimate and the market consensus at USD1.3bn of surplus. Accordingly, the annual current account deficit retreated further to USD7.7bn, which stands for the lowest level since December 2021. Furthermore, the core balance (Current Account Balance excluding energy and gold) reported a monthly surplus of USD7.2bn, while annual surplus rose to USD52.7bn from USD50.4bn. We expect the current balance to revert to a deficit in the last two months of the year, with the annual deficit increasing slightly. We project an annual current account deficit around USD9bn (0.7% of GDP) for 2024, excluding any potential revisions and our year-end current account deficit expectation for 2025 is USD15bn (1% of GDP). Our forecasts are based on the assumptions of no disruptions in energy prices and the continuation of low levels of gold imports.

* There was a net foreign selling activity, albeit modestly, through standard portfolio channels in the week of November 29 – December 6. Accordingly, the equity and the bond market (excluding repo transactions) experienced a net foreign outflow of USD157.6mn and USD6102.3mn, respectively. Besides, the foreigners’ share in total bond stock slid merely to 7.5% from 7.6%. The residents’ FX deposits tumbled by USD2.5bn (gold accounts excluded, EUR/USD parity adjusted) in the period of November 29 – December 6, while their total FX deposits (including gold, price adjusted) decreased by USD2.7bn in the week of November 29 – December 6. Moreover, the CBRT’s gross FX reserves rose by USD1.7bn to USD159.5bn, while net international reserves increased by USD0.9bn to USD65bn. Moreover, net reserves excluding swaps also increased by USD2.6bn to USD48.3bn.

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