Macro and Politics

*TURKSTAT will release October foreign trade figures 10:00 local time. According to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Trade, import and export figures for October materialized at USD29.4bn and USD23.6bn, respectively, resulting in a trade deficit of USD5.7bn, indicating a slight increase compared to the previous month. Along with the mere rise in the trade deficit and the expected slowdown in tourism revenues, we expect the current account balance to post a surplus around USD1bn in October lower than the previous month’s surplus of USD3bn. We project the current account deficit to end the year around USD9.5bn (0.7% of GDP), excluding imminent revisions on the past data.

*TURKSTAT will release November Economic Confidence Index @ 10:00 local time. The economic confidence index increased to 98 level from 95 in October, while the 3-months average rose to 95.4 from 94.2. The index signifies an optimistic outlook on the general economic situation when it is above 100, and a pessimistic outlook when it is below 100. It is noteworthy that the index has been below the 100 level since March. As per the sub-components of the October data, the consumer confidence index increased by 3.0% and became 80.6, real sector (manufacturing industry) confidence index increased by 3.0% and became 102.2, services confidence index increased by 1.5% and became 114.2, retail trade confidence index increased by 0.1% and became 110.7, construction confidence index decreased by 1.7% and became 86.3 in October compared to the previous month.

*The CBRT will release the minutes of the latest MPC meeting, held on November 21^st, today @ 14:00 local time. Notably, while the policy rate remained steady at 50% in the November meeting, there are significant changes in the text compared to the previous meeting, signaling a dovish stance and suggesting the possibility of an imminent interest rate cut, potentially as early as December. Therefore, today’s minutes will be closely monitored for insights into future monetary policy directions.

* The CBRT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and gross & net international reserves for the period of November 15 – 22 today @ 14:30 local time. In the previous week of November 8 – 15, the equity and the bond market (excluding repo transactions) experienced a net foreign inflow of USD138.6mn and USD1.6bn, respectively. Moreover, the foreigners’ share in total bond stock surged to 7.8% from 7.4%. Moreover, the residents’ FX deposits rose by USD2.1bn (gold accounts excluded, EUR/USD parity adjusted) in the mentioned period, while the residents’ total FX deposits (including gold, price adjusted) climbed by USD2.9bn. Besides, the CBRT’s gross FX reserves eased by USD634mn to USD156.8bn, while the net international reserves decreased by USD1.7bn to USD59bn. Net reserves excluding swaps also edged down by USD1bn to USD44bn in the week of November 8 – 15