Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The weak global outlook persists. Despite soft U.S. employment data, the first rate cut by the Fed is still expected in June. Recent messages from Fed officials continue to emphasize inflation risks and suggest that above-target readings may persist into 2026. Rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, along with China’s and Russia’s supportive stance toward Venezuela, have contributed to an increase in geopolitical risk perception. Following yesterday’s sell-off in U.S. and European equity markets, futures index contracts are also trading in negative territory this morning. Borsa Istanbul also experienced a weak session yesterday, with the BIST 100 Index declining by 0.94% to close at 11,348. The top five stocks contributing positively to the index were TURSG, TRALT, MAGEN, KRDMD, and AKBNK. Meanwhile, stocks that have attracted steady fund inflows over the past week include AKBNK, KRDMD, YKBNK, MGROS, BIMAS, FROTO, MAVI, KCHOL, and CCOLA. We view the increase in the number of index-heavy stocks continuing to see capital inflows as positive and healthy; however, the sustainability of this trend should be closely monitored. From a technical perspective, 11,470 and 11,605 levels can be followed as resistance, while the 11,070 / 11,150 band stands out as a support zone. Long-term valuations point to a 12-month target of around 15,500 for the BIST 100 Index. However, political risk concerns remain elevated. As such, we are in a period where targets derived from quantitative analyses are being moderated by qualitative considerations, which in turn continue to cap index performance. The day’s agenda is relatively calm. In Europe, aside from the final revision of CPI data, there are no major releases, and no changes are expected in these figures. In Turkey, the decline in five-year CDS premiums continues, with CDS levels at 214 basis points this morning.