Daily Bulletin

Good morning. While expectations for a Fed rate cut persist, forecasts for improving profitability among U.S. companies are also supporting global equities, led by Wall Street. U.S. futures are slightly negative this morning, whereas European futures are positive, and the overall tone in Asia is broadly on the buy side, except in China and Hong Kong. In Borsa Istanbul, expectations of an improvement in Turkey–U.S. relations are underpinning positive pricing. Yesterday, the BIST 100 index opened with a gap above the 11,250 / 11,300 resistance area and tested the 11,500 / 11,600 resistance zone several times during the day, but closed slightly lower toward the end of the session, finishing up 1.54% at 11,468. We expect the positive momentum to continue; however, in the event of profit-taking, the gap from yesterday could be filled. In this regard, the 11,250 / 11,300 range should now be monitored as a critical support area. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium stands at 259 basis points this morning, compared with 240 basis points yesterday. This increase does not signal a rise in risk premiums; rather, it reflects a change in maturity. We also observe no shift in related eurobond spreads. Therefore, we note that no deterioration in the risk perception of TL assets is being priced in. On today’s agenda, PMI data in Europe and the U.S. will be in focus. In addition, news flow from President Erdoğan’s contacts in the U.S. will be closely monitored. In particular, the Erdoğan–Trump meeting, expected to take place on Thursday, September 25, will be watched carefully.