Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk appetite remains balanced, while domestic political developments continue to weigh on Borsa Istanbul. Yesterday, the BIST 100 Index traded positively until 16:00, testing the 11,250 / 11,300 resistance area, but retreated to 11,050 after news that the Supreme Election Council (YSK) might convene around 15:30 today to announce a decision regarding the CHP’s 22nd Extraordinary Congress expected on Sunday, ultimately closing the day with a 1% loss. Until a decision is announced, we may see subdued sentiment in Borsa Istanbul, also driven by investors reluctant to take weekend risk. A decision that heightens political tension could push the BIST 100 Index toward the 10,800 support level, whereas a de-escalating decision could lead to a renewed move toward the 11,250 / 11,300 resistance area. Today’s agenda is calm, while next week’s focus will be on key data from the U.S., such as growth and core personal consumption expenditures. Turkey’s 5-year CDS started the day at 239 basis points; after briefly declining to 236 basis points yesterday, CDS spreads appear to be mirroring BIST’s pricing behavior. Should the downward trend continue, we would expect this to support banking sector stocks within the XBANK Index. Based on consensus company valuations, our 12-month target for the BIST 100 Index has once again approached around 15,000, implying a potential return of 35% compared to yesterday’s close.