Daily Bulletin

Good morning, Expectations for a Fed rate cut continue to support global markets; however, we are seeing some loss of momentum ahead of the U.S. PPI data, scheduled for release today at 3:30 p.m. local time. Global risk appetite is broadly flat this morning. Domestically, after a rapid rally from the 9,000 level to around 11,000 in seven weeks, the market is taking a breather. This rally, driven by expectations of a CBRT rate cut and stronger-than-expected 2Q25 earnings, will depend on three key factors going forward: 1) The messages to be delivered at the CBRT Inflation Report presentation at 10:30 a.m. today, 2) The continuation trend of the 2Q25 results, roughly half of which have been announced so far, 3) Political developments. In terms of long-term valuations for the BIST 100 Index, upward revisions are continuing, with the latest figures pointing to a 14,500 target on a 12-month horizon. We believe these upward revisions will continue, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Today’s domestic agenda includes the CBRT Inflation Report presentation at 10:30 a.m., a CHP press conference at 12:00 p.m., and the AKP’s 24th Anniversary Program at 2:00 p.m., where key messages are expected to be delivered, as well as the CBRT’s release of foreign securities transactions at 2:30 p.m. Internationally, the U.S. PPI data at 3:30 p.m. will be in focus, with notable increases expected in both headline and core annual figures. Data in line with expectations may limit the Fed-related optimism that has been priced into global markets for some time. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 270 basis points.