Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk appetite appears balanced this morning. U.S. equity futures are slightly negative, European futures are marginally positive, while Asian markets are generally trading on a positive note. In Borsa Istanbul, expectations of a new Credit Guarantee Fund triggered a nearly 2% intraday rebound yesterday from the session lows, with the BIST 100 index closing near the 9500 level. We are observing foreign inflows and increased activity from local institutional investors; however, momentum indicators are not yet strong enough to confirm a sustainable uptrend. Unless the 9700 / 9800 resistance range is decisively breached, it would be premature to speak of a lasting recovery. In the interim, the 9530 level may be monitored as a minor resistance, while the 9350/9400 band serves as a short-term support zone. The primary support area remains within the 9000/9100 range. From a valuation perspective, downward revisions in target prices due to weak Q1 earnings and rising interest rates have materialized, albeit to a lesser extent than anticipated. Consequently, the BIST 100 index target has been revised down from 14,400 to 13,800 over the past month. For the index to approach this target, which currently implies an upside potential of approximately 46%, catalysts such as a decline in interest rates, a pickup in economic growth, and reduced non-economic risks both domestically and globally will be required. Therefore, we do not foresee a significant short-term rally under current conditions. On today’s domestic agenda, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will release its weekly data on foreign transactions. While we have observed an inflow of $670 million over the past four weeks into Borsa Istanbul, we anticipate a notable outflow for the week of May 12–16. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spread starts the day at 298 basis points.