Daily Bulletin

Good morning. We start the day with news that the tension between Pakistan and India has escalated into open conflict, including missile strikes, downed aircraft, casualties, and injuries. While this confrontation between two nuclear powers has not yet had a significant early impact on the markets, if the tensions escalate further, negative repercussions on the markets are likely to follow. This morning, the global equity markets are primarily focused on the ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China, expected to continue in Switzerland, with hopes for conciliatory steps in the ongoing trade war. U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian markets (excluding India), are trading on a positive note this morning. At Borsa Istanbul, there was a limited rebound yesterday supported by capital inflows; however, momentum remains weak. The environment of high interest rates, weak corporate earnings, and ongoing political risks continue to exert pressure. For the BIST 100 index, the 9000 / 9100 support zone and the 9250 / 9280 resistance zone can be monitored. As anticipated, downward revisions in the 12-month average BIST 100 index targets continue. Recent calculations show a pullback towards 14,000, and we expect further declines potentially extending to the 13,500 level in the coming period. Despite this, the potential return remains high; however, we do not currently see a catalyst in our market that would encourage a shift toward this potential. Therefore, maintaining cautious and defensive positions remains sustainable. On today’s agenda, Fitch’s Turkey webinar and, in the evening, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision along with Fed Chair Powell’s statements will be closely followed. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 345 basis points.